and also the trees born into the waves zippyshare

The problem is, both the sunspots and the cosmic ray counts have a huge peak in periodicity at 10-11 years … but the 10Be records show nothing of the sort. However, the lack of the 11-year peaks periodicity analysis (or visible 11-year peaks in the 10Be data) suggests that the lag is spurious. A cross-correlation analysis shows slightly greater correlations with a 2 year lag, but not much. The correlation between Greenland 10Be and sunspots is -0.10, and between Antarctica 10Be and sunspots is even worse, -0.03 … like I said, pathetic. Periodicity analysis of the two datasets shown in Figure 1, 10Be flux from Greenland and AntarcticaĪs you can see, we have no power in either the 11-year or 22-year bands … and if you look at Figure 1, you can see that their correlation with the sunspots is … well … pathetic. for details of periodicity analyses):įigure 3. Here’s the periodicity analysis (see here et seq. Sunspot data has power in that range, as does the neutron count data representing cosmic rays … but the 10Be data shows nothing in that range. However, the problem with the 10Be records in this regard is … they have no power in the 11-year cycle range. So the relation between cosmic rays and sunspots is quite solid, as you can see above. Sunspots and cosmic rays (as indicated by the neutron count). Here’s what the relationship looks like:įigure 2. As a result, the numbers of cosmic rays, and presumably the 10Be flux rates, vary in an 11-year cycle inversely to the sunspot cycle. It is well-known that cosmic rays are deflected from the solar system by the magnetic field of the sun, which varies in general sync with the sunspots. It is the lack of any clear 11-year signal from the variations in cosmic rays.

I mean, if the two best recent dataset don’t agree with each other, then what are we supposed to believe? Seems to me like this would be enough in itself to put the whole 10Be-cosmic rays connection into doubt. The first unlikable item is that the correlation between these two 10Be datasets is pathetic, only 0.07. So … what’s not to like about these records? Well … lots of things. Bottom panel shows the annual average sunspot count. 10Be flux rates from Law Dome in Antarctica and from Southeast Greenland. So, without fanfare, here’s the data in questionįigure 1. The only thing better than data is recent data, because it is more likely to be accurate, and here we have seven decades of recent 10Be deposition rates (fluxes). Here is the author’s summary:Īnnually-resolved polar ice core 10Be records spanning the Neutron Monitor eraĪbstract: Annually-resolved 10Be concentrations, stable water isotope ratios and accumulation rate data from the DSS site on Law Dome, East Antarctica (spanning 1936-2009) and the Das2 site, south-east Greenland (1936-2002). In this case, I found a gem of a dataset. Yes, it costs me sometimes … but usually it allows me to find things that other folks have overlooked. After I’ve found out what I can from the dataset, and only then, do I search the literature to find out what other folks might believe. In short, what I do when faced with a new field is to go find some data and analyze it. I want to look whatever it is with a fresh eye, what the Buddhists call “Beginner’s Mind”, unencumbered by decades of claims and counter-claims. You see, I don’t want to be mesmerized by what is claimed to be already known.

Oh, the literature search is important, don’t get me wrong … but I postpone it as long as I possibly can. Now most folks would likely do a search of the literature first, to find out what is currently known about the subject. Being a congenitally inquisitive type of fellow, I thought I’d look to see just how good a proxy 10Be might be for solar activity. This is because 10Be is produced, inter alia, by cosmic rays in the atmosphere. In investigations of the past history of cosmic rays, the deposition rates (flux rates) of the beryllium isotope 10Be are often used as a proxy for the amount of cosmic rays.

And also the trees born into the waves zippyshare